Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long‐lived seabird supports need for eradication
Name:
REVISION1_Oppel_etal_TristanAl ...
Size:
2.147Mb
Format:
PDF
Description:
Submitted version
Average rating
Cast your vote
You can rate an item by clicking the amount of stars they wish to award to
this item.
When enough users have cast their vote on this item, the average rating will also be shown.
Star rating
Your vote was cast
Thank you for your feedback
Thank you for your feedback
Authors
Oppel, SteffenClark, Bethany L
Risi, Michelle M
Horswill, Catharine
Converse, Sarah J
Jones, Christopher W
Osborne, Alexis M
Stevens, Kim
Perold, Vonica
Bond, AL

Wanless, Ross M
Cuthbert, Richard
Cooper, John
Ryan, Peter G
Issue date
2022-06-18Submitted date
2021-10-21Subject Terms
albatrossmark-recapture
integrated population model
population viability analysis
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
SUMMARY 1. Invasive species are one of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide, but the eradication of invasive species from islands is a highly efficient management strategy. Because eradication operations require large financial investments, uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts of both invasive species and their removal can impede the willingness of decision makers to invest in eradication. Such uncertainty is prevalent for long-lived species that display an inherent lag between life stages affected by invasive species and those used for population status assessments. 2. Albatrosses are among the longest-living bird species and are threatened on land by invasive species and at sea by industrial fisheries. As in many seabird species, usually only a segment of the population (breeding adults) is used for status assessments, making it difficult to assess their population trends and the potential benefit of conservation action, such as the management of predatory invasive species. 3. We used population monitoring and mark-recapture data to estimate the past population trajectory of the Critically Endangered Tristan Albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) by accounting for unobservable birds at sea in an integrated population model. We then projected the future population trajectory for scenarios with or without predation by invasive house mice (Mus musculus) on their main site, Gough Island. 4. The adult breeding population remained stable between 2004 and 2021, but breeding success was low (31%) and our model indicated that the total population (including unobservable immature birds) decreased from a median estimate of 9795 to 7752 birds. Eradicating invasive mice leading to a two-fold increase in breeding success would result in a 1.8–7.6 times higher albatross population by 2050 (median estimate 10 352 individuals) than without this intervention. 5. Low reproductive output for long-lived species may lead to a cryptic population decrease, which can be obscured from readily available counts of breeding pairs by changes in the breeding population. Mouse eradication is necessary to revert the ongoing population decrease, even if this decrease is not yet apparent in the breeding population size.Citation
Oppel, S., Clark, B. L., Risi, M. M., Horswill, C., Converse, S. J., Jones, C. W., Osborne, A. M., Stevens, K., Perold, V., Bond, A. L., Wanless, R. M., Cuthbert, R., Cooper, J., & Ryan, P. G. (2022). Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long-lived seabird supports need for eradication. Journal of Applied Ecology, 00, 1– 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14218Publisher
WileyJournal
Journal of Applied EcologyType
Journal ArticleItem Description
Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. This document is the author’s submitted version of the journal article. You are advised to consult the published version if you wish to cite from it.ISSN
0021-8901EISSN
1365-2664ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1111/1365-2664.14218
Scopus Count
Collections