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    Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long‐lived seabird supports need for eradication

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    REVISION1_Oppel_etal_TristanAl ...
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    Authors
    Oppel, Steffen
    Clark, Bethany L
    Risi, Michelle M
    Horswill, Catharine
    Converse, Sarah J
    Jones, Christopher W
    Osborne, Alexis M
    Stevens, Kim
    Perold, Vonica
    Bond, AL cc
    Wanless, Ross M
    Cuthbert, Richard
    Cooper, John
    Ryan, Peter G
    Show allShow less
    Issue date
    2022-06-18
    Submitted date
    2021-10-21
    Subject Terms
    albatross
    mark-recapture
    integrated population model
    population viability analysis
    
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    Abstract
    SUMMARY 1. Invasive species are one of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide, but the eradication of invasive species from islands is a highly efficient management strategy. Because eradication operations require large financial investments, uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts of both invasive species and their removal can impede the willingness of decision makers to invest in eradication. Such uncertainty is prevalent for long-lived species that display an inherent lag between life stages affected by invasive species and those used for population status assessments. 2. Albatrosses are among the longest-living bird species and are threatened on land by invasive species and at sea by industrial fisheries. As in many seabird species, usually only a segment of the population (breeding adults) is used for status assessments, making it difficult to assess their population trends and the potential benefit of conservation action, such as the management of predatory invasive species. 3. We used population monitoring and mark-recapture data to estimate the past population trajectory of the Critically Endangered Tristan Albatross (Diomedea dabbenena) by accounting for unobservable birds at sea in an integrated population model. We then projected the future population trajectory for scenarios with or without predation by invasive house mice (Mus musculus) on their main site, Gough Island. 4. The adult breeding population remained stable between 2004 and 2021, but breeding success was low (31%) and our model indicated that the total population (including unobservable immature birds) decreased from a median estimate of 9795 to 7752 birds. Eradicating invasive mice leading to a two-fold increase in breeding success would result in a 1.8–7.6 times higher albatross population by 2050 (median estimate 10 352 individuals) than without this intervention. 5. Low reproductive output for long-lived species may lead to a cryptic population decrease, which can be obscured from readily available counts of breeding pairs by changes in the breeding population. Mouse eradication is necessary to revert the ongoing population decrease, even if this decrease is not yet apparent in the breeding population size.
    Citation
    Oppel, S., Clark, B. L., Risi, M. M., Horswill, C., Converse, S. J., Jones, C. W., Osborne, A. M., Stevens, K., Perold, V., Bond, A. L., Wanless, R. M., Cuthbert, R., Cooper, J., & Ryan, P. G. (2022). Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long-lived seabird supports need for eradication. Journal of Applied Ecology, 00, 1– 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14218
    Publisher
    Wiley
    Journal
    Journal of Applied Ecology
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10141/623011
    DOI
    10.1111/1365-2664.14218
    Type
    Journal Article
    Item Description
    Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. This document is the author’s submitted version of the journal article. You are advised to consult the published version if you wish to cite from it.
    ISSN
    0021-8901
    EISSN
    1365-2664
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1111/1365-2664.14218
    Scopus Count
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